Weekly Outlook: Week of October 26, 2026
Light heating demand to start the week, a warm NOAA outlook into early November, storage 35 Bcf above the 5-year average, and the November contract's expiry.
The week in one minute - Heating demand is light to start. The next 7 days carry 53 gas-weighted heating degree days nationally, 37 below the 10-year normal of 90. - NOAA leans warm into early November. Its Climate Prediction Center favors above-normal temperatures for most of the central and eastern U.S. from October 31 through November 8. - Storage is above average. At 3,644 Bcf, stocks are 35 Bcf above the 5-year average and 152 Bcf below last year. - Contract expiry: the November contract stops trading Wednesday, October 28, and December becomes the front month. - Positioning: managed money's net short grew to 157,409 contracts.
Weather and heating demand (Oct 25–31)
- National total: 53 gas-weighted heating degree days, against a normal of 90.
- Cooling demand: 11 cooling degree days, against a normal of 9.
- Change from the prior day's forecast: 6 heating degree days lower over the days both forecasts cover.
- Mildest regions: the Northern Plains (88 below normal for the week) and the Great Lakes (85 below). Texas/South Central is 40 below, and the Tennessee Valley 35 below.
- The exception: the Pacific is the only region running colder than normal, at 16 above.
- Last 7 days (through Oct 23): 69 heating degree days, a little above the normal of 65.
Days 6–14: NOAA outlook (Oct 31 – Nov 8)
NOAA's forecasters favor above-normal temperatures across most of the central and eastern U.S. Odds exceed 70 percent in parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Upper Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Parts of the West lean near to slightly below normal.
- Strength over time: the warm ridge over the central and eastern U.S. is strongest in the 6–10 day window and weaker in days 8–14.
- Confidence: NOAA rates it 4 out of 5 for days 6–10 and 3 out of 5 for days 8–14.
Why it matters: this is the start of the heating season. A warm first week of November in the Midwest and East, the biggest gas-heating regions, would keep withdrawals small or delay the switch from injections to withdrawals.
Storage
Week ending Oct 16: 3,644 Bcf after a 77 Bcf injection
| Comparison | Bcf | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| 5-year average | 3,609 | 35 above (1.0%) |
| Last year | 3,796 | 152 below (4.0%) |
By region: - South Central: 1,125 Bcf, the one region below its 5-year average (40 below). It is 125 Bcf below last year. - Everywhere else is above its average: East +24, Midwest +21, Pacific +18, Mountain +11.
Thursday's report covers the week ending Oct 23. For that week, the 5-year average change is a 76 Bcf injection, and last year's was also 76 Bcf.
Power burn
- 7 days through Oct 24: gas-fired generation totaled 27.9 TWh.
- Week over week: down 9% from 30.7 TWh, as cooling demand fades.
- Year over year: down 3% from 28.9 TWh.
Recent days are preliminary and can be revised.
Positioning
As of Tuesday, Oct 20: - Net position: managed money held a net short of 157,409 contracts. - Change: 30,928 more net short than the week before. - Breakdown: 202,570 long and 359,979 short. - Open interest: 1,710,685 contracts.
The week's calendar
- Wed Oct 28: last trading day for the November 2026 NYMEX natural gas contract. December 2026 becomes the front month.
- Thu Oct 29, 10:30 a.m. ET: EIA storage report, week ending Oct 23.
- Fri Oct 30, 3:30 p.m. ET: CFTC Commitments of Traders, positions as of Oct 27.
What to watch
- The warm outlook: whether it holds in the coming model runs, especially for the Great Lakes and Northeast.
- Thursday's storage number: how it compares with the 5-year average injection of 76 Bcf.
- Hedge-fund positioning: whether net short positions keep building into the contract roll.
Natural Gas Brief is a general market publication. It doesn't give personalized investment advice or recommend buying or selling any security, and nothing here is a trade signal. The publisher may hold positions in natural gas–related securities. This brief is generated with AI from public data, and its numbers are checked automatically against the source data.
Sources: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report; NOAA Climate Prediction Center degree days, 7-day forecasts and 6–10/8–14 day outlooks; EIA Hourly Electric Grid Monitor; CFTC Commitments of Traders. Normals are 10-year averages (2016–2025).