> ## Content Index
> Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.naturalgasbrief.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further.

# Weekly Outlook: Week of October 26, 2026
- URL: https://www.naturalgasbrief.com/weekly-outlook-week-of-october-26-2026/
- Published: 2026-10-25T21:15:35.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-25T21:15:35.000Z
- Description: Light heating demand to start the week, a warm NOAA outlook into early November, storage 35 Bcf above the 5-year average, and the November contract's expiry.
- Author: steve kuncho
- Tags: Weekly Outlook

**The week in one minute** \- **Heating demand is light to start.** The next 7 days carry 53 gas-weighted heating degree days nationally, 37 below the 10-year normal of 90\. - **NOAA leans warm into early November.** Its Climate Prediction Center favors above-normal temperatures for most of the central and eastern U.S. from October 31 through November 8\. - **Storage is above average.** At 3,644 Bcf, stocks are 35 Bcf above the 5-year average and 152 Bcf below last year. - **Contract expiry:** the November contract stops trading Wednesday, October 28, and December becomes the front month. - **Positioning:** managed money's net short grew to 157,409 contracts.

## Weather and heating demand (Oct 25–31)

- **National total:** 53 gas-weighted heating degree days, against a normal of 90.
- **Cooling demand:** 11 cooling degree days, against a normal of 9.
- **Change from the prior day's forecast:** 6 heating degree days lower over the days both forecasts cover.
- **Mildest regions:** the Northern Plains (88 below normal for the week) and the Great Lakes (85 below). Texas/South Central is 40 below, and the Tennessee Valley 35 below.
- **The exception:** the Pacific is the only region running colder than normal, at 16 above.
- **Last 7 days (through Oct 23):** 69 heating degree days, a little above the normal of 65.

## Days 6–14: NOAA outlook (Oct 31 – Nov 8)

NOAA's forecasters favor **above-normal temperatures across most of the central and eastern U.S.** Odds exceed 70 percent in parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Upper Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Parts of the West lean near to slightly below normal.

- **Strength over time:** the warm ridge over the central and eastern U.S. is strongest in the 6–10 day window and weaker in days 8–14.
- **Confidence:** NOAA rates it 4 out of 5 for days 6–10 and 3 out of 5 for days 8–14.

**Why it matters:** this is the start of the heating season. A warm first week of November in the Midwest and East, the biggest gas-heating regions, would keep withdrawals small or delay the switch from injections to withdrawals.

## Storage

**Week ending Oct 16: 3,644 Bcf after a 77 Bcf injection**

| Comparison     | Bcf   | Difference       |
| -------------- | ----- | ---------------- |
| 5-year average | 3,609 | 35 above (1.0%)  |
| Last year      | 3,796 | 152 below (4.0%) |

**By region:** \- **South Central:** 1,125 Bcf, the one region below its 5-year average (40 below). It is 125 Bcf below last year. - **Everywhere else is above its average:** East +24, Midwest +21, Pacific +18, Mountain +11.

**Thursday's report** covers the week ending Oct 23\. For that week, the 5-year average change is a 76 Bcf injection, and last year's was also 76 Bcf.

## Power burn

- **7 days through Oct 24:** gas-fired generation totaled 27.9 TWh.
- **Week over week:** down 9% from 30.7 TWh, as cooling demand fades.
- **Year over year:** down 3% from 28.9 TWh.

Recent days are preliminary and can be revised.

## Positioning

**As of Tuesday, Oct 20:** \- **Net position:** managed money held a net short of 157,409 contracts. - **Change:** 30,928 more net short than the week before. - **Breakdown:** 202,570 long and 359,979 short. - **Open interest:** 1,710,685 contracts.

## The week's calendar

- **Wed Oct 28:** last trading day for the November 2026 NYMEX natural gas contract. December 2026 becomes the front month.
- **Thu Oct 29, 10:30 a.m. ET:** EIA storage report, week ending Oct 23.
- **Fri Oct 30, 3:30 p.m. ET:** CFTC Commitments of Traders, positions as of Oct 27.

## What to watch

- **The warm outlook:** whether it holds in the coming model runs, especially for the Great Lakes and Northeast.
- **Thursday's storage number:** how it compares with the 5-year average injection of 76 Bcf.
- **Hedge-fund positioning:** whether net short positions keep building into the contract roll.

---

*Natural Gas Brief is a general market publication. It doesn't give personalized investment advice or recommend buying or selling any security, and nothing here is a trade signal. The publisher may hold positions in natural gas–related securities. This brief is generated with AI from public data, and its numbers are checked automatically against the source data.*

*Sources: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report; NOAA Climate Prediction Center degree days, 7-day forecasts and 6–10/8–14 day outlooks; EIA Hourly Electric Grid Monitor; CFTC Commitments of Traders. Normals are 10-year averages (2016–2025).*